Tuesday, May 20, 2008

When Getting Lucky Isn't So Lucky

Diversion of the Day: Don't be shocked when the Spurs and Pistons meet in a couple weeks in the NBA Finals. Consistency is key to winning. The end. Plus, I'm just NOT sold in particular on the Celtics. Besides Jesus Shuttleworth's amazing disappearing act, Tayshaun Prince's ridiculously long arms will bother the hell out of Paul Pierce, so don't expect too many more 40 point explosions. The ex-factor is Billups vs. Rondo. Billups has the size to outplay him, but the hurting hammy may slow him down and let Rondo speed around him. I can't figure out the Spurs, but the Lakers are their easiest matchup this playoffs since the only concern is pretty much Kobe, and even Bruce Bowen can curb that a bit. Ruben Patterson will be smiling from some jail cell.

Anyways, about a month ago, my dear friend Dylan and I discussed purchasing the Memphis Grizzlies. Cheap buy with potential to grow into something huge, as long as you fool people into thinking they're attending the REAL Memphis basketball team's games. That's an easy one though - we've devised a plan to pass out watered down whiskey shots while Mike Miller and John Calipari sing "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp", and by the time the fans enter Fed-Ex Forum, they'll be so dazed and confused that they won't realize the basketball players aren't wearing blue and white uniforms.

All kidding aside, the Grizz have potential. They have a solid young core that doesn't really seem to be on the verge of a meltdown or drug bust. They've adopted the Suns run-and-gun offense thanks to Coach Iavaroni, and it's worked out to their advantage as they outscored teams down the stretch of the season, getting 8 of their 22 wins in the final month of a half. They just need to learn some defense tactics, stay healthy, and figure out what to do with their front line.

The Grizz have a strong shot at getting the #1 or #2 picks in the NBA Draft Lottery tonight, which is normally a wonderful thing if your GM is intelligent enough to not draft Kwame Brown (ironically, currently on the Grizz's roster). With Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley being the stars of this draft class, busts are unlikely to happen in the first two picks. But what happens when you have the top 2 picks, and both of these people would cause issues for your team?

Obviously, Derrick Rose going from a Tiger to a Grizzly would make little sense when Mike Conley Junior already has the PG spot locked up, and my Philly boy Kyle Lowry as a fine backup. Conley was injured for a chunk of his rookie season, but considering that he had a solid year - low turnover rates, steadily rising numbers shooting and assist-wise, having to learn a new offense in a new league with your shoulder falling off, that sort of thing. I'm impressed alone with him averaging 10 points and over 5 assists in his first semi-full month of playing in January. Point is though, why do you need another point guard, and would Derrick Rose be that drastic of an improvement over Mike Conley? No. Duh. And the Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks have proved that stockpiling 15 guys who play the same position doesn't help build that good of a basketball team.

So the answer is clearly Lil' Mike, right? Who DOESN'T want a guy who can throw up a floater in traffic, miss, sky for his own offensive rebound, and put the shot back on a fadeaway in even MORE traffic (Yes, that moment actually happened)?

Well...maybe the Grizzlies. See, there's this guy named Rudy Gay on the Grizz. Maybe you've heard of him. Just 2 years ago, just like Lil' Mike, supposedly the most talented guy in college basketball. He didn't put up Mike's jaw-dropping numbers at UConn, but he had that same ridiculous "potential" tag on him - and similar to Mike, everyone questioned whether or not he truly wanted to be great and could lead a team to win. Unlike Mike, Rudy played on a team full of great talent (Emeka Okafor, Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, and about 75 other guys currently in jail or on NBA rosters), which explains why he didn't really NEED to be third in the nation in scoring for UConn to be good.

He had a yawn-inducing rookie season in the NBA, but doubled his scoring average this year to 20 ppg, and actually started becoming a well-rounded player. I got used to reading Rudy Gay stat lines along the lines of: 22 pts, 6-35 FG, 1 reb, 0 assts, 6 TOs, and then he started caring and averaged about 6 boards a game, and even began consistently racking up assists and steals. So Rudy Gay is becoming the star everyone thought he would be someday. That's good. Great teams need a star to win. Period.

But Rudy Gay is like Michael Beasley - he's a star only when the ball runs through him most of the time. And if you put them on a team together, what will happen? Most likely, you'll get the Antoine Walker/Paul Pierce-led Celtics - 2 guys putting up ridiculous numbers while their team put up mediocre performances.

Look at all the recent college and NBA champions. With the exception of the Lakers of this early decade (which had the most dominant, unstoppable player in recent memory with Shaq-in-his-prime, who put up 40 and 20 like he was Wilt Chamberlain), they were all your prototypical well-rounded team, with fairly even shot distribution. They all had at least one consistent star, with several other guys who could step it up when it mattered. One and Two man shows just DON'T get it done, unless they have a Shaq. Lil' Mike is pretty amazing, but he's not Shaq. Nobody is.

So do you risk imploding your team because Lil' Mike and Rudy will average over 40 shot attempts per game between them? They would make an excellent front court tandem, and also often risk never getting into a flow together because they both NEED their shots to get comfortable. If you think that's not true for Mike, look at K-State's first round victory against USC, where Mike didn't get it going until late because he spent the first half in foul trouble.

The Grizz COULD use a true big man - Hakim Warrick played excellent offensively after the Gasol trade, but he's not the dominant 4 man you need to win in the West. They could also use a new 2 guard - Mike Miller is alright, but an upgrade wouldn't hurt.

So aren't they better off falling in the 3-6 range? Getting a chance to draft DeAndre Jordan or Eric Gordon may be the best thing for this team. They'd probably make an impact, and DON'T need the ball in their hand at every moment. Gordon is much more polished than Jordan, but 1 in every 10 7-footers HAVE to work out. I think we're due since Dwight Howard, right?

So, I'm gonna pray the lottery is rigged and the Knicks get the #1 pick and the Sonics #2 (D. Stern needs to ensure the Sonics find a new fan base), and the Grizzlies don't ever have to think about destroying their team with the 2 best players in the Draft. Although getting Lil' Mike to join Miller and Calipari for a rendition of "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp" would be pretty awesome.





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